The 0.4% Bet Nobody Is Watching – A Tail Risk Signal in Oil
I saw a number on Polymarket today: 0.4%. That's the market's implied...
Trends
•
0xPlanB
•
2026-07-21
#Tail Risk
Tail Risk related articles
Market Prices
BTC
Bitcoin
$66,445.9
+1.59%
ETH
Ethereum
$1,924.98
+1.02%
SOL
Solana
$78.01
+0.03%
BNB
BNB Chain
$573.5
+0.12%
XRP
XRP Ledger
$1.15
+3.02%
DOGE
Dogecoin
$0.0736
+1.74%
ADA
Cardano
$0.1737
+2.60%
AVAX
Avalanche
$6.59
-0.12%
DOT
Polkadot
$0.8519
+2.75%
LINK
Chainlink
$8.63
+0.59%
Fear & Greed
25
Extreme Fear
Market Sentiment
Event Calendar
202615
04
halving
Bitcoin Halving
Block reward reduced to 3.125 BTC
22
03
unlock
Optimism Unlock
Circulating supply increases by about 2%
10
05
upgrade
Ethereum Pectra Upgrade
Raises validator limit and account abstraction
28
03
unlock
Arbitrum Token Unlock
92 million ARB released
30
04
upgrade
Celestia Mainnet Upgrade
Improves data availability sampling efficiency
18
03
unlock
Sui Token Unlock
Team and early investor shares released
08
04
upgrade
Solana Firedancer
Independent validator client goes live on mainnet
12
05
halving
BCH Halving
Block reward halving event
Market Cap
All →
1
Bitcoin
BTC
$66,445.9
1
Ethereum
ETH
$1,924.98
1
Solana
SOL
$78.01
1
BNB Chain
BNB
$573.5
1
XRP Ledger
XRP
$1.15
1
Dogecoin
DOGE
$0.0736
1
Cardano
ADA
$0.1737
1
Avalanche
AVAX
$6.59
1
Polkadot
DOT
$0.8519
1
Chainlink
LINK
$8.63
Hot Tags
Tools
All →Altseason Index
43
Bitcoin Season
BTC Dominance
Altseason
Gas Tracker
Ethereum
28 Gwei
BNB Chain
3 Gwei
Polygon
42 Gwei
Arbitrum
0.5 Gwei
Optimism
0.3 Gwei
🐋 Whale Tracker
🔵
0xcde7...4ac0
1d ago
Stake
3,580 ETH
🔵
0x708f...511f
1h ago
Stake
8,210,059 DOGE
🔴
0x48ce...69d8
12m ago
Out
1,850,471 USDC
💡 Smart Money
0xfc4c...da29
Arbitrage Bot
+$0.4M
82%
0x2b03...4506
Arbitrage Bot
+$0.2M
90%
0x9a6d...3139
Institutional Custody
+$3.1M
73%